Checking the battle lines

A new proposal is before the Senate that would keep the government open through mid-March.

It’s not enough.

Battle-scarred veterans of the 1995 federal shutdown are warning House Republicans: be careful.

The memories of Speaker Newt Gingrich and his Republican House majority welcoming a fight with President Bill Clinton and cheering a government shutdown are still strong for some.

The real and political costs of that episode — furloughed workers, park closures and delayed veterans benefits, not to mention Clinton destroying Gingrich in the following spin wars — are too painful.

Everyone stepped back – a bit – from the edge last Friday with a bill extending government funding for two weeks.

Provided the Senate passes it.

Speaker John Boehner is pushing Democrats to dig deeper for the second half of the fiscal year.

He’s demanding they support a House-passed bill with $61 billion in cuts that Democrats are calling draconian.

Those who had a front-row seat to the 1995 shutdown are getting worried.

The House Republicans are saying it’s their way or the highway.

In some ways, that’s where it’s similar to the position Speaker Gingrich took in the winter of 1995 where it had to be his way or no way.

While the political lessons of 1995 can be applied today, the situation is much different this time around.

Congress is divided, with Democrats in control of the Senate.
Two of the most important players involved in the budget spat — Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have the benefit of hindsight, having served in Congress during the twin shutdowns of 1995 and 1996.
Boehner has backed off a bit saying there will be no government shutdown.

And America’s tea-party-charged fixation on reducing spending and debt has given the GOP a stronger hand in their cost-cutting crusade.

One big difference, Boehner doesn’t have control of his troops.
He’s given the freshmen Republicans a lot of leash – way too much to pull them back in line.

He’s a conductor that let’s his musicians play what they want while he swings his arms.
They’ve tasted power and won’t willingly hand it back and play in tune.

The Republicans’ hand is slightly strengthened and Democrats’ hand is slightly weakened due to the real-world severity of the economic situation.

Doing the same thing they did in the 1995 environment will result in a loss for Republicans.

Current House Republicans disagree, saying public opinion is on their side this time.
Of course.
Until the public feels the bite of where the individual cuts affect them and their families.

Watch them turn.

Republican Representative Brian Bilbray, a member of the 1994 freshman class, insists that Boehner is leading a more civil dialogue about spending.

He says that’s a sharp contrast from some of his 1994 classmates whom he described as “freshman blowhards who shot their mouth off, had never balanced the budget and made a lot of threatening statements.”

We beg to disagree – as that sounds exactly like the freshmen Republicans now.